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比較

companies / TWSE

台積電

2330.TWTWSE· TWwww.tsmc.com

Sole foundry for Rubin (N3P process) and CoWoS-L packaging.

近 30 天股價

NT$2,410+1.69%

市值 NT$61.72兆

價格警報

最新估值

NT$1,850-17.96%
COMPS_EV_EBITDA · 2026-05-24 · medium

Foundry-peer EV/EBITDA comps. Peer set: UMC (2303.TW, ~9.2x), GFS (~9.6x), SMIC (0981.HK, ~13.7x), Samsung (005930.KS, ~9.6x conglomerate-level — foundry slice ~22x but consolidated as ~10x; kept with caveat). Intel excluded (IFS loss-making). Ex-Samsung clean median 9.6x; applied **15.0x** to reflect TSMC quasi-monopoly on leading-edge logic + CoWoS rationing — well above peer median, in line with market-implied multiple at spot TWD 2,255. CY26E EBITDA mid TWD 3,123B (~USD 95B), built top-down: revenue CAGR FY25→FY28 ≈ 21.5% on HPC mix expansion (51% → 70%) anchored to weilab supply-chain forecasts for Rubin nvl72/nvl144-cpx/nvl576, AMD MI450/MI455x, Google TPU v7p/v8i/v8t. EBITDA margin 67–68.5%, flattening on Fab 21 (Arizona) + Kumamoto D&A drag. Headline implied MID = TWD 1,850 → **-18% vs spot 2,255**. Honest comps read for a quasi-monopoly: any reasonable foundry-peer multiple under-prices TSMC. HIGH case (18x × high EBITDA) ≈ TWD 2,375 covers spot. Pair this with the same-day DCF if generated. xlsx: data/valuations/2026-05-24-2330-tw-2.xlsx (local-only, not in git). Peer spots: Samsung 005930.KS fresh from weilab stock_quotes 2026-05-22; UMC/GFS/SMIC flagged stale_estimate.

看歷史估值 →

在 BOM 上的位置

NVIDIA RTX Spark · RTX Spark Laptop (N1X)2 row
  • 1°N1X SoC — Blackwell GPU chiplet
  • secondaryN1X SoC — MediaTek CPU/IO chiplet
NVIDIA RTX Spark · RTX Spark Desktop (N1X)2 row
  • secondaryN1X SoC — MediaTek CPU/IO chiplet
  • 1°N1X SoC — Blackwell GPU chiplet
NVIDIA Vera Rubin · Vera Rubin NVL723 row
  • 1°Rubin GPU die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
  • 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
NVIDIA Vera Rubin · Vera Rubin NVL144 CPX3 row
  • 1°Rubin CPX GPU die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
  • 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
NVIDIA Vera Rubin · NVL576 Ultra3 row
  • 1°Rubin Ultra GPU die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
  • 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
AMD Instinct MI400 Series · AMD Instinct MI4503 row
  • 1°MI450 GPU die· 99%
  • 1°EPYC Venice CPU· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer· 99%
AMD Instinct MI400 Series · AMD Instinct MI455X (Helios Rack)3 row
  • 1°MI455X GPU die· 99%
  • 1°EPYC Venice CPU· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer· 99%
Google Tensor Processing Unit · TPU v7p Ironwood2 row
  • foundryGPU compute die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-S· 99%
Google Tensor Processing Unit · TPU 8t (Sunfish, training)3 row
  • foundryGPU compute die· 99%
  • foundryI/O die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-S· 99%
Google Tensor Processing Unit · TPU 8i (Zebrafish, inference)2 row
  • foundryCompute die· 99%
  • 1°CoWoS-S / EMIB· 99%

題材歸屬

  • AI PC — NVIDIA 用 RTX Spark / N1X 正式踏進 PC(MediaTek 2454 + TSMC 2330)hotPrimary

    TSMC 台積電 — N1X 以 3nm 投片;AI PC SoC(N1X / Ryzen AI / Snapdragon X)共同代工方

  • TGV 製程設備鏈 — 8 大步驟拆解,雷射 + 蝕刻是良率瓶頸最厚的商機hotPrimary

    CoPoS 主導者;2026-02 開始送設備到 R&D、2026-06 VisEra pilot line、2028-29 量產;NVIDIA + AMD 已預訂;Chiayi AP7 為 hub

  • TGV 玻璃基板題材 — Intel GCS 與 TSMC CoPoS 兩條獨立路線watchPrimary

    TSMC — CoPoS 主導者,2026-02 開始送設備到 R&D、2026-06 VisEra pilot line、2028-29 量產,NVIDIA + AMD 確認客戶;Chiayi 為 hub 整合 CoPoS / SoIC / WMCM

在 research 中被提到

  • Google TPU v8 / v9 供應鏈拆解(Sunfish / Zebrafish 與第九代展望)

    …的環節;如果 EMIB 真的被 Google 採用,反而能舒緩這個瓶頸。 - **TSMC**:N2 雙線(Sunfish + Zebrafish)+ CoWoS 雙客戶(Broadcom + MediaTek)幾乎鎖死了 Google 在台積電的 wafer / advanced packaging 雙端產能。 - **Intel**:EMIB 是擠進 Google 客製矽供應鏈的後門票;2027 H2 是觀察「EMIB 能否真正接走 Google 8e 量」的關鍵時點。 …

  • 光聖科技 (6442.TWO):從光纖被動元件到 CPO 矽光子主動光源

    …法說會口頭指引從「光通訊占 80%」進一步切到「AI 客戶占 X%」的數字披露。 - **合聖 IPO 進度**:2026 H1 公開發行是否如期、2027 興櫃登錄前是否揭露 ELS 量產認證客戶(NVIDIA / Broadcom / 台積電矽光子聯盟成員)。 - **菲律賓新廠貢獻**:2026 全年產能利用率是否從滿載再擴張,是判斷光聖 ramp 上限的關鍵。 - **波若威 Fiber Shuffle Box 量產進度**:2027 Q1 月產 10k 套若達成,反…

財報 highlight

期別RevenueGross profitOperating incomeEPS毛利率營益率YoYQoQSource
2026Q1NT$1.13兆NT$0——0.0%—+35.10%+8.41%yahoo-finance2
2025Q4NT$1.05兆NT$0——0.0%——+5.67%yahoo-finance2
2025Q3NT$9899.18億NT$0——0.0%——+6.01%yahoo-finance2
2025Q2NT$9337.92億NT$0——0.0%———yahoo-finance2

法說 / IR events

尚未整理法說或 IR event。

競爭對手

  • Samsung Electronics005930.KS

    Samsung Foundry — 先進製程 (3nm/2nm) 主要對手

  • IntelINTC

    Intel Foundry (IFS) — 18A 製程 reclaim foundry 市場

相關公司

在 BOM 上跟該公司同列出現的廠商 — 可能是同層 supplier、補位 source、或客戶端,不一定是競爭關係。

  • 聯發科2454.TW
  • BroadcomAVGO
  • Advanced Micro DevicesAMD
  • NVIDIANVDA
  • 創意3443.TW

新聞 timeline

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